Sugar
Global Sugar Trends 2026
Types of Sugar
Global trade in sugar revolves around a few key product categories. Raw sugar (unrefined cane sugar) is defined as any sugar “not suitable for human consumption without further refinement”
fsa.usda.gov
– it contains impurities and must be refined into edible white sugar. Refined (white) sugar is fully crystallized sucrose from cane or beet, the standard table sugar. Brown sugars (light/dark) are essentially white sugar with molasses content added back in
sugar.org
, used for baking and flavoring. Liquid/invert sugars are sucrose dissolved or hydrolyzed in water: for example, liquid sugar is white sugar syrup
sugar.org
, and invert sugar is sucrose split into equal glucose and fructose
sugar.org
(widely used in beverages to prevent crystallization). Organic sugar refers to cane (or beet) sugar grown under organic, sustainable practices (no synthetic pesticides/fertilizers) and processed minimally
sugar.ca
. These categories (raw and refined sugar, plus specialty forms like brown, liquid, invert, organic) constitute the bulk of global sugar production, trade and consumption.
Raw sugar (cane): Bulk exports of partially refined cane sugar – must be refined further
fsa.usda.gov
.
Refined (white) sugar: Finished pure sucrose (cane or beet), ready for consumption.
Brown sugar: White sugar with natural molasses; provides color and flavor
sugar.org
.
Liquid/Inverted sugar: White sugar dissolved in water (liquid syrup) or chemically inverted to glucose/fructose
sugar.org
sugar.org
.
Organic sugar: Sugar (cane/beet) certified organic, from sustainably managed farms
sugar.ca
.
Cultivation Forecast (2026)
Brazil (sugarcane): Brazil remains the world’s largest sugarcane/sugar producer. MY2025/26 cane area is forecast around 9.85 million hectares
apps.fas.usda.gov
. Yields are high (≈79.2 t/ha)
apps.fas.usda.gov
. Total raw sugar production is projected near 44.7 MMT
nasdaq.com
. These forecasts assume favorable weather and high mill recovery rates; recent drought concerns have eased with good rains. Ethanol vs. sugar decisions will be key – mills will divert cane to ethanol if sugar prices fall below ethanol parity
think.ing.com
.
India (sugarcane): India is second only to Brazil. After a drought-hit 2024/25, planted area is expected to recover to ~5.85 Mha in 2025/26
apps.fas.usda.gov
. Strong 2024 monsoons have replenished water tables, boosting cane planting and yields. FAS/USDA forecasts sugar output ~35 MMT (raw value) in 2025/26
apps.fas.usda.gov
(a ~25–30% jump from ~28 MMT in 2024/25), reflecting higher acreage and improved sucrose recovery. Key factors: monsoon rains, reservoir levels and government policies (e.g. MSP support) will drive area and yields
apps.fas.usda.gov
.
Thailand (sugarcane): Thailand’s sugarcane area is stable at roughly 1.7–1.8 Mha, producing about 95–96 MMT of cane in 2025/26. USDA projects sugar output ~10.3 MMT (up ~1–2%)
apps.fas.usda.gov
. Farmers have maintained cane plantings due to attractive cane prices and guaranteed minimums, despite competition from other crops. Weather has been generally favorable; modest growth in output is expected. Exports may edge down slightly due to stronger competition from Brazil and India.
European Union (sugar beet): The EU is a major sugar beet producer. For 2025/26 the Commission/USDA forecast a ~10% cut in harvested area (to ~1.35 Mha) due to low prices and high costs. Yields are also expected to fall (to ≈110 t/ha, down ~7%), largely from persistent dryness and disease (e.g. virus yellows in France
vespertool.com
). As a result, white sugar output is projected to decline ~8–9% to about 15.0 MMT raw-equivalent
sugar-asia.com
. Policy factors (removed production quotas, coupled payments) and high input costs (energy, fertilizer) contribute to area reduction.
United States (beet & cane): U.S. sugar production (cane + beet) is about 8.5 MMT raw in 2025/26
apps.fas.usda.gov
, slightly down from prior year. Beet (Midwest) and cane (Florida, Louisiana) acreage and yields are relatively stable under USDA forecasts. Domestic policy (sugar program with import quotas and price supports) keeps U.S. prices high (≈20–24¢/lb domestically), so growers have little incentive to expand acreage. Barring adverse weather, U.S. output should hold near current levels, with any slight change driven by acreage or yield trends rather than major structural shifts.
The above forecasts are driven by weather and economics: Brazil’s projections assume normal rains (recently improved); India’s outlook hinges on monsoon performance; Thailand benefits from policy-guarantees; EU’s reduction reflects low beet prices and crop issues
vespertool.com
; U.S. stability owes to strong farm support and relatively small production costs changes. Rising input costs (energy, fertilizers) and climate variability remain key risk factors globally.
Region Area (2025/26) Yield (t/ha) Sugar Output (2025/26 forecast)
Brazil (cane) 9.85 Mha
apps.fas.usda.gov
79.2 t/ha
apps.fas.usda.gov
44.7 MMT
nasdaq.com
India (cane) 5.85 Mha
apps.fas.usda.gov
~80 t/ha 35.3 MMT
nasdaq.com
Thailand (cane) ~1.73 Mha (est.) ~55 t/ha 10.3 MMT
nasdaq.com
EU (27, beet) 1.35 Mha 109.8 t/ha 15.0 MMT
sugar-asia.com
United States ~0.40 Mha (cane) + 0.50 Mha (beet) ~80 (cane), 60 (beet) 8.5 MMT
apps.fas.usda.gov
Price Predictions for 2026
Commodity price forecasts suggest continued pressure on sugar in 2026. Analysts (USDA, ISO, Czarnikow, ING) point to a growing global supply surplus in 2025/26 – on the order of 6–8 MMT above demand
nasdaq.com
think.ing.com
. For example, ING expects the sugar market to swing from last year’s deficit to a ~7 MMT surplus in 2025/26, implying sustained downward pressure
think.ing.com
. Raw sugar (ICE No.11) futures have recently traded around 15¢/lb; many forecasts see 2026 averages in the 14–16¢/lb range. ING projects an average of ~15.4¢/lb for the 2026 calendar year, with prices seasonally higher in Q1 (tight Brazilian off-season) and dropping to trough levels in Q3 (peak South American harvest)
think.ing.com
. White sugar prices (e.g. London #5 contract) move in tandem. Currently mid-$500s/ton, EU models forecast domestic ex-works prices to rise from about €600/MT in early 2026 to over €650/MT by late 2026
beroeinc.com
. This reflects EU-specific tightness (falling beet output
beroeinc.com
) even as world raw sugar stays abundant. Contributing factors: energy/ethanol markets (high oil/ethanol prices tend to pull cane toward fuel, tightening sugar supply; conversely, low oil/ethanol prices encourage sugar output)
think.ing.com
. In Brazil, sugar is currently below ethanol price parity, which should push mills to boost ethanol output and help correct the surplus
think.ing.com
. Currency: a softer Brazilian real would make Brazilian sugar cheaper in USD terms, but late-2025 saw the BRL recover toward ~5.37/USD
edfmansugar.com
, which may somewhat restrain export volumes. Policy: government actions (e.g. India adjusting export quotas, EU import tariffs) remain wildcards. All told, forecasts imply a mostly soft price environment in 2026, with occasional spikes around seasonal tight periods or policy shifts.
Investment and Procurement Implications
The expected oversupply and modest price outlook carry clear strategic signals. For investors and producers, margins may tighten: forecasts of multi-million-ton surpluses
nasdaq.com
think.ing.com
suggest avoiding aggressive capacity expansion in low-efficiency regions. Instead, emphasis should be on yield gains (R&D, better varieties, irrigation) and cost control (energy efficiency, equipment). Conversely, heavy losses or insolvencies could occur if prices plunge; risk management (hedging via futures/options) is therefore crucial. Procurement teams (food/beverage manufacturers) have an opportunity to lock in lower prices. With raw sugar expected to dip, buyers may schedule Q3–Q4 2026 contracts to benefit from harvest-time lows. However, they must guard against volatility: a weather shock or policy change could tighten supply unexpectedly. Thus, prudent use of futures hedge (e.g. ICE No.11 contracts) and staggered purchases is advised. For example, bumper crops in Brazil/India could soften prices, but a frost in Brazil or EU crop disease (e.g. yellowing virus in France
vespertool.com
) could cause sudden spikes. Other considerations: currency exposure – importers using EUR or BRL should hedge given potential forex swings
edfmansugar.com
. Diversification – companies may expand sourcing to new origins (e.g. Africa or niche organics) or invest in alternative sweeteners if sugar markets look weak. Sustainability – with consumer focus on ESG, investment in certified sustainable/organic sugar or bioethanol integration could capture price premiums or policy incentives. In sum, the outlook calls for cautious, well-hedged investment; opportunistic procurement; and attention to policy and climate risks. Sources: Latest USDA/FAS forecasts, ISO/Czarnikow reports and industry analyses were used. Key data: USDA sugar outlooks and country reports
nasdaq.com
apps.fas.usda.gov
sugar-asia.com
, plus industry news (ING, Barchart, Beroe)
think.ing.com
beroeinc.com
. The figures above are cited from these sources.
Citations
Sugar Glossary | Farm Service Agency
Types - White Sugar, Brown Sugar, Liquid Sugar | Sugar.org
https://www.sugar.org/sugar/types/
Types - White Sugar, Brown Sugar, Liquid Sugar | Sugar.org
https://www.sugar.org/sugar/types/
Types - White Sugar, Brown Sugar, Liquid Sugar | Sugar.org
https://www.sugar.org/sugar/types/
Types of Sugar - The Canadian Sugar Institute
https://sugar.ca/sugar-basics/types-of-sugar
Sugar Prices See Continued Support from Safras Forecasts for 2026/27 | Nasdaq
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/sugar-prices-see-continued-support-safras-forecasts-2026-27
Sugar surplus to keep prices under pressure | articles | ING Think
https://think.ing.com/articles/sugar-surplus-to-keep-prices-under-pressure/
European sugar producers cut beet area in emergency move
https://vespertool.com/news/european-sugar-producers-cut-beet-area-in-emergency-move/
India, Brazil to Sweeten Global Sugar Output in 2025-26 - Sugar Asia Magazine
https://sugar-asia.com/india-brazil-to-sweeten-global-sugar-output-in-2025-26/
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/sugar.pdf
Sugar Prices See Continued Support from Safras Forecasts for 2026/27 | Nasdaq
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/sugar-prices-see-continued-support-safras-forecasts-2026-27
Sugar surplus to keep prices under pressure | articles | ING Think
https://think.ing.com/articles/sugar-surplus-to-keep-prices-under-pressure/
Sugar surplus to keep prices under pressure | articles | ING Think
https://think.ing.com/articles/sugar-surplus-to-keep-prices-under-pressure/
EU Sugar Supply Crisis & Strategic Procurement
Title
https://www.edfmansugar.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Monthly-Sugar-Note-Oct-2025_.pdf
\
Wheat
Global Wheat Trends 2026
Types of Wheat. The world wheat market is segmented into several major classes based on grain hardness, color, and growing season. In U.S. industry terms, the five principal classes are Hard Red Winter (HRW), Hard Red Spring (HRS), Soft Red Winter (SRW), White (Soft and Hard White), and Durum
ers.usda.gov
uswheat.org
. HRW (grown mainly in the U.S. Great Plains) is high in protein and gluten and yields strong bread flour – used for hearth breads, rolls and flatbreads
ers.usda.gov
uswheat.org
. HRS (spring-planted) is even higher in protein and prized for artisan breads, bagels and pizza crusts
uswheat.org
. SRW (grown in U.S. eastern states) is softer and lower-protein, suited to cakes, cookies, crackers and sweet baked goods
ers.usda.gov
uswheat.org
. Soft White wheat (winter and spring varieties) is low-moisture and low-protein, producing a very white flour ideal for Asian-style noodles, pastries and cakes
uswheat.org
. Hard White (not always listed separately) is similar in use to HRW but with a whiter bran, used in pan breads and whole-wheat products. Durum wheat is the hardest class – amber-colored with high gluten – and is exclusively used for premium pasta and couscous
uswheat.org
. In practice, global trade values these classes differently (e.g. U.S. Gulf HRW and HRS versus Black Sea soft/HRW, Canadian Western Red Spring, Australian AW/WG, French/Barley, etc.), but broadly demand follows these usage patterns
ers.usda.gov
uswheat.org
. Cultivation Forecast (2026). Global wheat production has reached record levels in 2025/26, and most forecasters expect 2026 to see continued ample output, though the massive surge is unlikely to be fully repeated. Figure 1 illustrates 2023 production by country, highlighting the concentration of output in China, India, Russia, the U.S., EU, etc.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wheat_production,_2023.png
Figure: Global wheat production by country (2023). Darker green = higher output (FAO data)【62†】.
https://think.ing.com/articles/strong-supply-to-keep-wheat-prices-capped/
Figure: Global average wheat yield, 2000–2025 (tonnes/hectare). Steady gains are noted, reaching ~3.8 t/ha by 2025
think.ing.com
. Major producer forecasts for 2026 (the 2026–27 season) are as follows:
China: Output is expected to remain around 140 million tonnes in 2025/26
apps.fas.usda.gov
, essentially unchanged from previous years as area is stable and yield growth slows. China’s government has maintained import quotas (9.6 Mt including flour) for 2026
ukragroconsult.com
, suggesting limited expansion of imports. In summary, China’s wheat supply will be ample, with a stable ~140 Mt crop and modest feed-use gains
apps.fas.usda.gov
.
India: India’s wheat area and output are projected to hit new highs. Above-normal 2025 monsoon rains left soil moisture high, encouraging record planting. Industry estimates put 2025/26 planting at ~34.1→36.0 million hectares (5% rise)
reuters.com
. If yields remain favorable (no hot winter), production could exceed 117–118 Mt, surpassing the 2024/25 record of 117.5 Mt
reuters.com
think.ing.com
. However, India maintains an export ban, so this record harvest will mainly rebuild domestic stocks (wholesale prices have eased)
reuters.com
think.ing.com
. Key factors: higher minimum support prices (up 6.6% for 2025/26
reuters.com
) are drawing area, and a lingering La Niña (colder N. India winter) should sustain yields
reuters.com
.
European Union: After a poor 2024, EU output rebounded strongly in 2025. USDA and trade data indicate ~142 Mt harvested in 2025/26 (a 16% jump to a 10-year high)
think.ing.com
. For 2026/27, analysts expect a pullback as some farmers rotate land to oilseeds. S&P’s CERA forecasts ~132.9 Mt for 2026/27 (down ~9 Mt)
spglobal.com
. This assumes planted wheat area will be smaller (due to depressed wheat prices and attractive oilseed returns) despite solid yields. Overall, EU stocks were already rising with the big 2025 harvest, so carryover should grow further. Influencing factors: EU weather was favorable in 2025 (leading to high yields), but 2026 winter sowing is under watch — too-dry northern Russia versus ample soil moisture in central Europe. Policy (CAP payments, input subsidies) remains supportive, but the strong Euro has kept farmgate prices weak
think.ing.com
, which may curb acreage.
Russia: Russia produced a near-record 86.5 Mt in 2025/26 (6% above prior year) thanks to excellent yields
think.ing.com
. However, Russian farmers are shifting marginal acreage into sunflowers and rapeseed. As of late 2025, sowing progress was good (dry-weather aids planting), but analysts expect total 2026/27 wheat output to slip to ~84.1 Mt (S&P forecast)
spglobal.com
. This modest decline is largely area-driven; yields should remain high barring an early winter kill. Russia still dominates global exports (~41 Mt in 2025/26), and even a slight drop (with robust exports) means its exportable surplus will stay large. Key risks: winter weather (dry spots could stress fields) and export policies (previous export tariffs have eased this year).
Ukraine: Ukraine’s wheat outlook is improving. Crop tours and analyst reports forecast ~23.9 Mt in 2026/27 (up from 23.0 Mt in 2025/26)
argusmedia.com
. This is above the 4-year average and reflects a slight rebound in harvested area (to ~5.2 M ha) and solid yields (tour estimates ~4.6 t/ha)
argusmedia.com
argusmedia.com
. Although planting in late 2025 faced erratic rains (delaying some fields), the eventual heavy soil moisture has set the 2026 crop in good condition
argusmedia.com
. Ukraine’s producers contend with logistical and security constraints, but the crop tour notes that the benefit of moisture could offset earlier delays. If realized, this output will support exports (budgeted at ~20-24 Mt) and rebuild some buffers.
United States: The U.S. planted and harvested wheat area has been near 45 M acres (~18 M ha) for several years, with 2025/26 yields reaching record highs (winter wheat yield ~53.3 bu/acre = ~3.6 t/ha
rfdtv.com
). As a result, 2025/26 production neared 54 Mt (the largest since 2016)
think.ing.com
. USDA projects roughly the same (~54 Mt) for 2026/27. However, there is a risk of a smaller crop if weather turns adverse: a forecast La Niña winter will likely be warmer and drier in the Southern Plains, raising winterkill risk
rfdtv.com
. Input costs matter: U.S. farmers are facing somewhat higher fertilizer costs in 2026 (nitrogen prices up ~10–15% from 2025
farmersnational.com
), though fuel and seed are flat. On policy, the new Farm Bill (“One Big Beautiful Bill”) raised support prices and planted acreage incentives, partially cushioning any profit squeeze
farmersnational.com
. In sum, most outlooks call for a roughly flat-to-smaller U.S. crop next year, with weather and seed costs the main swing factors.
Canada: Canada’s 2025/26 wheat crop was a record 40.0 Mt
usda.gov
, as late rains in the Prairie provinces pushed yields to near-historic levels. For 2026, official forecasts (AAFC) foresee a small reduction as some farmers trim spring wheat area and as soil moisture returns to normal. Barring drought, 2026 output should remain near 38–40 Mt. Key influences: spring wheat area will depend on relative prices (currently crops like canola and pulses are competitive), and heavy rains in mid-2025 have left ample soil moisture. So far, Canada’s 2025/26 exports are ahead of last year (strong demand from Middle East/Asia) and 2026 shipments should be robust unless domestic price incentives shift.
Australia: Australia’s 2025/26 harvest is projected up ~4% to 35.6 Mt
spglobal.com
, its second or third largest on record. This boost comes from improved fall rains in Western Australia and South Australia. If the weather remains favorable into spring 2026, analysts see the potential for another large crop in 2026/27. Official forecasts align with this: ABARES and S&P project the 2025/26 crop at ~35.6 Mt (vs USDA 36.0 Mt, which some think high)
spglobal.com
. The major risk for Australia is the timing of El Niño: as southern Australia plants crops in mid-2026, an El Niño could cause early dryness. Overall, Australia is likely to supply 35–37 Mt again in 2026/27, with minor year-to-year swings driven by rainfall and Australian dollar value (strong A$ boosts local prices, encouraging fewer exports).
Other exporters: Argentina also expects a near-record 2025/26 crop (around 27 Mt
argusmedia.com
). Ukraine and EU increase supplies to Europe and Africa. Key “others”: Kazakhstan, Turkey and North Africa have adequate cropping conditions for 2026. In sum, the global wheat supply outlook is for near-record output: USDA/WASDE December 2025 projects world production ~838 Mt in 2025/26
usda.gov
, well above the 5-year average. Even if 2026/27 sees some cuts (e.g. smaller EU/Russia crops), output should remain on the high side (likely 820–830 Mt). Thus global ending stocks are projected to rise again (e.g. ~275 Mt by mid-2026
usda.gov
), indicating ample supply going into 2026, provided no major yield shocks occur.
Price Outlook (2026). Wheat prices in 2026 are expected to trade in a relatively narrow range, with any upside capped by abundant supply. After the post-2022 rally, CBOT/Matif futures have generally slipped as stocks built. Analysts (e.g. ING) note that global wheat stocks-to-use will remain comfortable (projected ~32–33% by 2026/27)
think.ing.com
, limiting upside. Indeed, strong crops in 2025 meant that world inventories rose sharply (ING forecasts a ~10 Mt stock build to 271 Mt in 2025/26
think.ing.com
). This supplanting of earlier tightness has put downward pressure on futures. We expect 2026 wheat prices to see seasonal swings but no dramatic spikes. For example, Chicago SRW futures might trade in a band around current levels (roughly USD 5.00–5.50/bu, or ~$180–200/MT) barring surprises. Key price drivers will include: global supply/demand balance (with forecast comfortable carryover)
think.ing.com
; energy and fertilizer costs (which feed into production cost, e.g. N prices remain ~10–15% above 2025
farmersnational.com
, but down 40% from 2022 peaks
fao.org
); major-currency shifts (a weak USD makes US wheat cheaper abroad – indeed, 2025 saw U.S. exports jump ~23% YOY partly on the weaker dollar
think.ing.com
); and short-term weather risks (El Niño dryness or Black Sea disruptions could tighten near-term supplies). Looking at futures curves, some seasonal firmness is expected heading into Northern Hemisphere spring planting (April/May 2026) if weather in the Plains is poor, but any rally should be capped by exportable surpluses from the Black Sea and South Hemisphere. Conversely, late-2026 planting in Argentina/US/Central Asia will hinge on global prices: if quotes stay modest (~$200/MT), growers may favor alternative crops (corn, cotton), slightly reducing 2027 wheat sowings. Price Outlook by Class: Major export classes (U.S. HRW/HRS, Black Sea HRW, EU milling wheat, Australian HRW) currently trade within a $10–15/MT range of each other on an FOB basis, reflecting small quality/distance adjustments. In 2026, we see relative stability. For example, U.S. spring wheat (Minneapolis) may trade at a premium to SRW and HRS due to higher protein demand, but all will generally track the broad feed-quality wheat price. Durum (pasta wheat) may see a slight firming in early 2026 if spring planting faces dry spots, since global durum output is only ~50 Mt (much smaller than common wheat) and consumer demand remains steady. Drivers to watch include: any new export restrictions (e.g. Russia’s export taxes, India’s export ban extension) which could artificially tighten world supply; changes in import demand (e.g. South Asian demand recovering, Middle East purchases); and currency moves (a stronger ruble or real could underpin Russian or Brazilian prices respectively). But overall, the consensus is for a mild price rally, if any – for example, some analysts suggest $510–520/quarter (in December 2025 futures $/bushel terms) as resistance
litefinance.org
, meaning about $200–210/ton. Prices below $180/MT are unlikely, given steady global demand and relatively inelastic feed consumption. Investment and Procurement Implications. The above forecasts imply a neutral-to-bearish outlook for wheat prices in 2026, which shapes strategy as follows:
Farmers/Producers: Margin pressure is a risk if prices fall further. Producers should focus on cost-efficiency (e.g. optimizing fertilizer use now that prices have eased
fao.org
) and use marketing tools. For example, with comfortable inventories, forward contracting or selling futures around 80–90% of expected production (during recent rallies, many farmers locked in profits) is prudent
agriculture.com
. If weather turns poor (La Niña dryness), a small yield shortfall could occur – having 2026 crop already hedged with put options or forward contracts will mitigate any supply-crunch spike. In 2026, better winter moisture (India) or strong Spring rains (Australia) are likely, so producers can lock in current mid-level prices and benefit from cheap fertilizer.
Grain Traders/Exporters: High global stocks and output mean traders face a crowded market. Commodity funds and hedge funds will likely be net sellers or neutral; any bullish bets must be timing-specific (e.g. short-term weather or geopolitics). Exporters should monitor logistics bottlenecks (port capacities, inland transport). Major trade sources note that with global imports (outside China/India) running above production, trade flows are steady
rfdtv.com
. Opportunistic buying on local dips and storing grain (cheap financing is still possible) could pay off if supply-tight scenarios emerge. Careful currency hedging is also needed: a rising USD (from future Fed actions) could erode export competitiveness (as happened in 2025 when a weaker USD boosted U.S. wheat on world markets
think.ing.com
).
Millers/End-Users: From a procurement perspective, ample 2026 crops offer a risk-on buying window. Buyers of wheat (flour mills, feedlots) might secure long-term contracts at current levels, using futures or over-the-counter swaps to hedge price swings. Because prices may not move much lower, delaying all purchases for fear of a price crash is risky – instead, a staggered buying strategy (e.g. lock in 25–50% needs at present levels, 2026 crop forward) can lock in competitive costs. Watch for export bans or currency-driven price spikes as triggers to buy more. For durum buyers, procuring forward is sensible as that market is tighter.
Investors: Broad commodity indices may underperform in 2026 given soft wheat outlook, so sector rotation into higher-opportunity ag markets (like corn/soy if weather is tight there) could be warranted. Investors in agri-equipment or seed/fertilizer firms should note input cost trends: fertilizer prices are well below 2022 peaks
fao.org
, suggesting fertilizer margins will be squeezed but usage volumes may rise. Shares of fertilizer producers may be less attractive, while farmland and water assets (more scarce) become more valuable. On the long side, specialty bread/pasta companies could benefit if quality premiums firm. Agricultural funds often use wheat futures spreads (e.g. Jul vs Dec 2026) to time buys; with superelevated supply, contango is likely (carrying charges for storage), so playing deferred months may lock in a flat curve.
Risks and Opportunities. Key risks in 2026 include weather shocks (drought or frost in a major region), geopolitical upheaval (a Ukraine grain corridor shutdown, or export restrictions from Russia/Argentina), and policy surprises (e.g. India unexpectedly reopening exports). Such shocks could send prices sharply higher. Currency volatility is also a risk: if the USD unexpectedly strengthens, it could cut export demand. Conversely, the main opportunity is that global wheat is plentiful – oversupply will cap prices. Lower grain costs could boost livestock and biofuel sectors (feed cost relief) and give consumers cheaper bread and pasta. An “exports from nowhere” scenario (e.g. new Black Sea corridors, South American surpluses) could lower import costs for many countries. Investors and buyers should thus balance: hedge against tail risks by holding options or maintaining optionality, but generally lean towards inventory building and forward contracting in a largely neutral price outlook
rfdtv.com
think.ing.com
. Continuous monitoring of USDA/FAO/IGC reports and weather forecasts will be essential to adjust positions if the supply-demand balance shifts. Data Summary (WASDE 2025/26). The USDA’s Dec 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for wheat (all classes) highlight the ample 2025/26 supply situation
usda.gov
. Key figures (million tonnes) are:
Season 2023/24 2024/25 (est) 2025/26 (proj, Dec 2025)
Production 792.34 800.77 837.81
Consumption 796.96 810.77 822.97
Ending Stocks 274.65 270.04 274.87
These numbers confirm that despite rising use (led by feed and food), production gains in 2025/26 will raise global ending stocks to a 4-year high
think.ing.com
usda.gov
. Sources: Forecasts and data are drawn from USDA (WASDE)
usda.gov
, FAO/AMIS reports
fao.org
, International Grains Council analyses, and leading trade publications (Reuters, S&P Global, Argus, RFD-TV, ING, etc.). All projections and figures above are based on the latest available reports (as of late 2025) and industry expert forecasts for 2026.
Citations
Wheat - Wheat Sector at a Glance | Economic Research Service
http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wheat/wheat-sector-at-a-glance
Wheat Classes - U.S. Wheat Associates
https://uswheat.org/working-with-buyers/wheat-classes/
Wheat Classes - U.S. Wheat Associates
https://uswheat.org/working-with-buyers/wheat-classes/
Wheat Classes - U.S. Wheat Associates
https://uswheat.org/working-with-buyers/wheat-classes/
Wheat - Wheat Sector at a Glance | Economic Research Service
http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wheat/wheat-sector-at-a-glance
Wheat Classes - U.S. Wheat Associates
https://uswheat.org/working-with-buyers/wheat-classes/
Wheat Classes - U.S. Wheat Associates
https://uswheat.org/working-with-buyers/wheat-classes/
Strong supply to keep wheat prices capped | articles | ING Think
https://think.ing.com/articles/strong-supply-to-keep-wheat-prices-capped/
China maintains grain import quotas in 2026 at 2025 levels
https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/china-maintains-grain-import-quotas-in-2026-at-2025-levels/
India set for record wheat planting as soil moisture and prices rise | Reuters
Strong supply to keep wheat prices capped | articles | ING Think
https://think.ing.com/articles/strong-supply-to-keep-wheat-prices-capped/
India set for record wheat planting as soil moisture and prices rise | Reuters
India set for record wheat planting as soil moisture and prices rise | Reuters
India set for record wheat planting as soil moisture and prices rise | Reuters
Strong supply to keep wheat prices capped | articles | ING Think
https://think.ing.com/articles/strong-supply-to-keep-wheat-prices-capped/
COMMODITIES 2026: Russian wheat output expected to fall as farmers pivot to oilseeds | S&P Global
Strong supply to keep wheat prices capped | articles | ING Think
https://think.ing.com/articles/strong-supply-to-keep-wheat-prices-capped/
Strong supply to keep wheat prices capped | articles | ING Think
https://think.ing.com/articles/strong-supply-to-keep-wheat-prices-capped/
COMMODITIES 2026: Russian wheat output expected to fall as farmers pivot to oilseeds | S&P Global
Ukraine & Romania Wheat Crop Forecast | Argus Media
Ukraine & Romania Wheat Crop Forecast | Argus Media
Ukraine & Romania Wheat Crop Forecast | Argus Media
Ukraine & Romania Wheat Crop Forecast | Argus Media
Global Wheat Demand Supports Improved Price Outlook 2026 - RFD-TV
https://www.rfdtv.com/global-wheat-demand-supports-improved-price-outlook-2026
Strong supply to keep wheat prices capped | articles | ING Think
https://think.ing.com/articles/strong-supply-to-keep-wheat-prices-capped/
Global Wheat Demand Supports Improved Price Outlook 2026 - RFD-TV
https://www.rfdtv.com/global-wheat-demand-supports-improved-price-outlook-2026
2026 Farm Input Outlook
https://www.farmersnational.com/energy/news/farm-management/2026-farm-input-outlook
2026 Farm Input Outlook
https://www.farmersnational.com/energy/news/farm-management/2026-farm-input-outlook
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde1225.pdf
COMMODITIES 2026: Australia to reap larger wheat crop, export restrictions to counter supply pressure | S&P Global
Argentina wheat yields rise, low protein confirmed | Latest Market News
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde1225.pdf
Strong supply to keep wheat prices capped | articles | ING Think
https://think.ing.com/articles/strong-supply-to-keep-wheat-prices-capped/
FAO Food Outlook points to broad-based increase in global food commodity production
Wheat Price Forecast & Prediction for 2025, 2026, and 2027–2030
https://www.litefinance.org/blog/analysts-opinions/wheat-price-forecast-and-prediction/
Grain Marketing Lessons From 2025 to Guide Your 2026 Strategy
https://www.agriculture.com/grain-marketing-lessons-from-2025-to-guide-your-2026-strategy-11855798
Global Wheat Demand Supports Improved Price Outlook 2026 - RFD-TV
https://www.rfdtv.com/global-wheat-demand-supports-improved-price-outlook-2026
Global Wheat Demand Supports Improved Price Outlook 2026 - RFD-TV
https://www.rfdtv.com/global-wheat-demand-supports-improved-price-outlook-2026
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Cocoa
Global Cocoa Market Outlook 2026
Cocoa Types and Derivatives
Cocoa beans come in three main genetic groups. Forastero varieties (hardy bulk beans) dominate global supply (~80–95% of harvest). Criollo beans are rarer (<5% of world output) and prized for fine flavor. Trinitario is a Criollo–Forastero hybrid (10–15% of production) that offers a balance of flavor and resilience. These bean types underpin the bulk vs. fine-flavour classification: West African Forastero beans yield the bulk cocoa (≈95% globally), while Criollo/Trinitario in Ecuador, the Caribbean, and select Asian countries produce “fine” (aromatic) cocoa. Cocoa derivatives are the processed products of these beans. After harvest and fermentation, beans are roasted and winnowed to separate the nibs. The nibs (≈52–55% fat
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) are ground into cocoa liquor (also called cocoa mass or chocolate liquor), which is the principal ingredient in chocolate
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. Pressing this liquor yields cocoa butter (the fat fraction) and cocoa cake. The cake is milled into cocoa powder. In commerce:
Cocoa butter – the pale-yellow fat used in chocolate manufacture and extensively in cosmetics and pharmaceuticals.
Cocoa liquor (mass) – the pure ground bean paste (fat+solids), used with sugar, milk and other ingredients to make chocolate
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.
Cocoa powder – the defatted nib solids, sold as natural or alkalized powder for confectionery, bakery, beverages, and flavoring
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.
Each tonne of nib contains roughly half fat and half solids: about 52–57% becomes cocoa butter
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, with the rest yielding liquor and powder. These derivatives trade globally (e.g. on ICE and regional markets) and are critical to chocolate and confectionery supply chains.
Cultivation Forecast
https://devongeography.wordpress.com/2024/04/29/global-cocoa-production/
Figure: 2022 cocoa production by country (thousand tonnes)
devongeography.wordpress.com
. Cocoa production is highly concentrated. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana dominate the market: in 2022 Côte d’Ivoire produced ~2.2 million tonnes (≈33% of world supply
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) and Ghana ~1.1M tonnes. Other leading producers include Indonesia (~0.65M) and Ecuador (~0.34M in 2022), with Nigeria, Cameroon, Brazil and Peru each in the 0.2–0.3M range (see figure).
Côte d’Ivoire
Ivory Coast remains the world’s largest producer, but output has fallen from ~2.2M tonnes (mid-2010s) to ~1.6–1.8M in recent seasons
icco.org
. Plantings (~4.8M ha) are largely mature; yields suffered due to drought, heat and pest pressure. In late 2025 Côte d’Ivoire sold only ~1.3M t forward for the main crop (Oct–Mar 2026) – down from 1.4M t a year before – reflecting anticipated declines. Analysts attribute this to underinvestment in farms, ageing trees and erratic rainfall. Forecasts for the 2025/26 season remain cautious: improved August rainfall offers hope, but even a modest production rebound would likely still leave output below the 2M-ton level.
Ghana
Ghana’s cocoa output has plunged from >1.0M t in early 2020s to roughly 0.5–0.6M t. In 2024/25 Ghana harvested only ~590k t (versus a 650k target). Factors include heavy rains (black pod disease) and cocoa swollen shoot virus damaging trees. For 2025/26, growers are optimistic after somewhat better dry-season weather, and the government targets ~600k t. However, industry sources (ICCO) estimate actual output around 500–550k t. Cocoa Swollen Shoot remains endemic and farm replanting is slow. Yield pressure will continue to limit Ghana’s production growth in 2026.
Nigeria
Nigeria’s harvest has been volatile. The Nigerian Cocoa Association projects 2025/26 output at ~305k t, down 11% from ~344k t a year earlier. (“Historically Nigeria aimed for 500k t by 2025, but that seems out of reach.”) The country’s cocoa acreage (~500k ha, mostly southern states) and yields have suffered from poor farm maintenance and deforestation policies. 2026 forecasts remain around ~0.3–0.35M t barring any major policy or technology changes.
Cameroon
Cameroon’s production (≈0.30M t) is on par with Nigeria. ICCO data forecast ~320k t for 2024/25
icco.org
. Cameroon has benefitted from improved farm rehabilitation, and record rains in 2023 did not hurt it as badly as West Africa. However, El Niño–related droughts still pose a risk. 2026 projections are roughly flat or slightly lower (~0.3M t) if weather normalizes.
Indonesia
Indonesia (the largest Asian producer) grew production post-2010 but then stagnated. FAO data put 2022 output around 0.66M t; however ICCO’s latest 2024/25 forecast is only 0.20M t
icco.org
(likely reflecting only part of total cocoa or a subset of bean classes). In practice, Indonesia’s real output (including smallholders) is likely higher. The outlook depends on weather and farm care: a return to normal monsoon rains is expected in 2026
reuters.com
after severe drought in 2023. If rainfall improves, yields (currently <500 kg/ha) could recover. Planted area (~0.6 M ha) is stable, but yields remain modest. Conservatively, 2026 production is expected to hold around 0.6–0.7M t, assuming normal weather.
Ecuador
Ecuador has been the fastest-growing major producer. The country diversified away from bananas to fine-flavor cocoa, adopting agroforestry. Yields are high (~800 kg/ha) versus ~500 kg/ha in West Africa. ICCO forecasts Ecuador at ~0.48M t for 2024/25
icco.org
, and local reports expect >0.57M t in 2025/26 with a target ~0.65M+ t by 2027
farmforce.com
. This suggests continued expansion in 2026. Government support for planting and high price incentives are driving a growing area under the Nacional variety.
Peru
Peru is a smaller Latin American producer (≈0.17M t in 2022). Recent trends are upward: Peru’s government and private sector are promoting cocoa as an alternative crop. While still behind Ecuador or Brazil, Peru’s output is forecast by ICCO to creep above 0.35M t by 2024/25 (including other Americas)
icco.org
. With stable climate, we expect modest increases in 2026 (perhaps 0.2–0.25M t), assuming disease is managed. Regional Climate Factors: The 2026 forecast is shaped by weather. In West Africa, a shorter 2025/26 rainy season or prolonged 2026 dry season could further cut yields (analysts warn ~8–10% drop if the dry spell extends)
farmforce.com
. West African trees are aging (many >25 years), so even good rain might not restore past yields without replanting. In contrast, 2026 in Southeast Asia should bring normal monsoon rains (after a weak La Niña)
reuters.com
, which bodes well for the Indonesian crop. Latin American farms (Ecuador/Peru) are in higher-altitude agroforestry zones; climate risks are lower, and some acreage is new. Overall, global production in 2026 is expected to inch up modestly (perhaps a few percent over 2025) if weather cooperates. But any shock – drought, pest/disease outbreak or extreme rainfall – in any major region could tighten the market significantly.
Price Predictions for 2026
Cocoa prices were extremely volatile in 2024–25. Futures in London/NY peaked at ~$12,900/tonne (USD) in Dec 2024, then collapsed by over 50%. As of early 2026, ICE cocoa futures (Mar 2026) trade around $6,000–6,300/tonne – still well above historical norms. For context, March 2025 ICE contracts were ~$6,000–6,300 (down from $12,931 in Dec 2024). Looking ahead by quarter, most analysts expect continuation of high nominal prices in 2026, though likely well below the 2024 spike. Key drivers:
Global balance: ICCO and trade houses now see only a small 2025/26 surplus (ICCO cut it to 49,000 t, Citigroup to 79,000 t), whereas Rabobank still estimates ~250,000 t surplus. The slim surplus implies tight fundamentals. If West African production falls again, even moderate demand could push prices higher. Conversely, a bumper crop (unlikely) could ease prices.
Index flows: Cocoa rejoins the Bloomberg Commodity Index in Jan 2026 (≈1.7% weight), which is forecast to bring significant passive fund inflows (Citigroup estimates up to ~$2 billion). This technical factor could buoy prices in early 2026, especially if funds buy front-month contracts.
Seasonality: Prices typically rise in Q4 each year due to European/US seasonal demand and thin prompt supplies. By Q1/Q2 2026, after major West African main crops have begun to materialize, prices may soften unless exportable volumes are very tight. Anecdotal reports of bullish sentiment (Concerns over future supply) may keep premiums high in 2026.
Supply risks: Any negative surprise (extreme weather, disease outbreaks like swollen-shoot virus in Ghana/Côte d’Ivoire, or logistics disruptions) would support prices. For example, if West Africa suffers from a prolonged 2025/26 dry season, futures could easily test the $7k+ range in mid-2026. By contrast, if rains remain favorable, pressure on prices could build later in the year, possibly bringing prices down toward the lower end of the $6k–$7k range.
Demand trends: Global cocoa grindings (a proxy for chocolate demand) slowed in 2024, especially in Asia and Europe, while North American demand grew modestly
farmforce.com
. If 2026 brings any significant recovery in consumption (post-high-price cutbacks), that would underpin prices. Inflation and consumer behaviors (e.g. stockpiling or switching to cheaper confectionery) will also matter.
Futures curve: As of late 2025, ICE cocoa futures show a gradual backwardation: front-months (2026) at ~$6–6.3k, tapering to ~$5.5–6.0k by late-2026. This suggests the market expects modest easing once the next harvests complete, but not a collapse. Stakeholders should watch the shape of the curve: a steeper backwardation would signal acute tightness, while a shift to contango would indicate surplus expectations. Butter and Powder: Cocoa butter and powder prices largely mirror cocoa bean prices, since they are by-products. In 2025, cocoa butter prices also hit record highs (over $10k/t) then eased to ~$5–6k. We expect 2026 butter and powder prices to remain firm in Q1 (driven by bean prices and confectionery demand) and then adjust downward if bean prices fall. Specific dynamics will depend on factors like global chocolate output (butter demand) and edible fat substitutes. No strong divergence is expected unless there is a localized supply issue (e.g. a cocoa butter shortage would inflate its premium over beans). Key Influencers: In summary, cocoa prices in 2026 will be tugged by multiple factors – the tight West African supply forecast, Latin American output growth, weather events (El Niño/La Niña), pest/disease pressure, and large-scale financial flows (index funds). Political factors (trade policies, inflation, currency shifts) will also play a role. For example, a weak US dollar (or Euro) can make cocoa cheaper for those currency areas. Notably, growers’ real incomes will be affected by local currencies: e.g. Côte d’Ivoire’s CFA (pegged to EUR) is devalued 2022, boosting farmer rupee, whereas Ghana’s cedi has weakened sharply, impacting costs. Such currency moves indirectly feed into local production incentives and selling decisions, which in turn influence world prices.
Investment and Procurement Implications
Supply-Chain Risks & Strategies: The 2026 outlook suggests continued tight supplies of raw cocoa. For chocolate manufacturers and ingredient buyers, this means higher procurement risk. Companies may need to adjust strategies – for example, Cocoa & Cacao Board (COCOBOD) and CCC forward-sell less; similarly, commercial buyers might hedge shorter-term (as we already see) or diversify origins. Trading houses report that long-term hedges are being replaced by 4–5 month hedging. As one analyst notes: “supply tightness in Ivory Coast… means procurement strategies may need adjustment”. Buyers should monitor West African weather closely during the critical main crop (Oct–Jan) and plan contingency buying in Latin America/Asia to cover shortfalls. Stock positions might need to be built earlier in 2026 if harvests look weak. Investments in Production:
Value-added processing: High cocoa prices make local processing more attractive. For example, Côte d’Ivoire is investing heavily to process at least 50% of its crop by 2026 (up from 44% in 2024). Each tonne processed domestically yields ~$900–1,200 of extra value versus raw export. Stakeholders (governments, investors) could capture significant returns by expanding crushing and chocolate facilities in Africa and Asia, insulating end-users from bean price swings.
Farm rehabilitation: Investors (governments, development agencies, private agribusiness) may pour funds into planting high-yield hybrids and rejuvenating old farms, especially in West Africa. Given the aging-tree problem, 2026 is critical for rejuvenation. Technology investments (e.g. improved planting material, GPS mapping of plots) will help meet new sustainability regulations and boost long-term yields.
Sustainable cocoa and premiums: Premium and “fine flavor” beans carry higher margins. With robust demand for certified and differentiated cocoa, there are opportunities in financing agroforestry and certification projects in Latin America and elsewhere. Investors may back specialty cocoa ventures (e.g. fine-flavor cooperatives in Peru/Ecuador) to tap the high-end market.
Trade & Policy:
Traceability and regulation: Stricter supply-chain rules (EU Deforestation Regulation, voluntary sustainability standards) will force investment in traceability systems. Cocoa exporters and traders must maintain farm-level traceability (digital mapping, farmer registries) to comply with EUDR, as planned by Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Non-compliance risks losing EU/US market access. Forward-looking buyers should fund such systems or absorb costs in their sourcing strategy.
Tariff environment: The current outlook suggests minimal new trade barriers on cocoa. For example, U.S. authorities are expected to exempt cocoa from planned Section-301 tariffs, and the EU has delayed its deforestation law by one year. However, ongoing trade negotiations and currency volatility remain risk factors. Procurement teams should remain vigilant: an unexpected tariff or currency shock (e.g. sharp CFA/EUR moves) could create short-term cost spikes.
Opportunities:
Index and financial flows: The imminent inclusion in the Bloomberg Commodity Index may attract new capital. Commodity funds and ETFs (like NIB, COCO) could see inflows, temporarily boosting near-term prices. Savvy investors and hedgers might use futures/options to profit from or protect against this.
Alternative ingredients: As large chocolate makers did in late 2025, some firms may continue product reformulation (e.g. alternative fats) to reduce cocoa dependence. While this trend is a threat to farmers, it opens markets for cocoa alternatives (grape, sunflower-based “chocolates”). Investors are already backing such ventures (e.g. Cargill’s NextCoa). This structural shift represents both risk and opportunity: it highlights the need to secure profitable segments of the traditional cocoa business and/or to invest in substitute industries.
In summary, stakeholders should prepare for continued price volatility and tight markets in 2026. Procurement plans must be agile: use shorter-term hedges, diversify supply base (Latin America, Oceania, even small African origins), and build inventories if necessary. Investment strategies should focus on resiliency: boosting processing, modernizing farms, and ensuring traceability. Major risks include adverse weather and plant diseases (Swollen Shoot, Black Pod, etc.), which could trigger sharp price spikes. Conversely, the premium for traceable, sustainable cocoa offers an opportunity: brands can leverage high prices to fund farmer premiums and build more transparent supply chains, potentially stabilizing relationships and smoothing future supply. Sources: Authoritative industry and news sources including the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) and USDA provide baseline production forecasts
icco.org
. Bloomberg, Reuters and commodity analysts (Rabobank, Citigroup, ICE) offer market outlooks (e.g. forward price drivers). Regional statistics from Côte d’Ivoire/COCOBOD and climate reports inform local crop prospects
farmforce.com
. (All data cited above are drawn from these and similar reports.)
Citations
Blommer-chocolate-process-diagrams-020117
https://www.blommer.com/_documents/Blommer-chocolate-process-diagrams-020117.pdf
Blommer-chocolate-process-diagrams-020117
https://www.blommer.com/_documents/Blommer-chocolate-process-diagrams-020117.pdf
Blommer-chocolate-process-diagrams-020117
https://www.blommer.com/_documents/Blommer-chocolate-process-diagrams-020117.pdf
Global Cocoa Production | Devon Geography
https://devongeography.wordpress.com/2024/04/29/global-cocoa-production/
https://www.icco.org/wp-content/uploads/Production_QBCS-LI-No.-1.pdf
https://www.icco.org/wp-content/uploads/Production_QBCS-LI-No.-1.pdf
Indonesia expects normal wet season in 2026, weather agency says | Reuters
https://www.icco.org/wp-content/uploads/Production_QBCS-LI-No.-1.pdf
2025-2026 Cocoa Season Outlook: Challenges and Sustainability in Focus
2025-2026 Cocoa Season Outlook: Challenges and Sustainability in Focus
2025-2026 Cocoa Season Outlook: Challenges and Sustainability in Focus
https://www.icco.org/wp-content/uploads/Production_QBCS-LI-No.-1.pdf
All Sources